Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Runs the primary analysis with the scenario-analyst agent and obtains a second opinion with the strategy-reviewer agent. Generates a comprehensive English report covering 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts, recommended stocks, and a critical review

Scenario Analyzer Overview This skill analyzes medium to long term (18 month) investment scenarios starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence ( scenario analyst and strategy reviewer ) and integrates multi angle analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report. When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: You want to analyze the medium to long term investment impact of a news headline You want to construct multiple 18 month scenarios You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd order effects You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion Examples: Prerequisites API Keys : None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch) MCP Servers : None Dependencies : The scenario analyst and strategy reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool Architecture Workflow Phase 1: Preparation Step 1.1: Headline Parsing Parse the headline provided by the user. 1. Headline check Confirm a headline was passed as an argument If not provided, ask the user for input 2. Keyword extraction Key entities (company names, country names, institution names) Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities) Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.) Step 1.2: Event Type Classification Classify the headline into one of the following categories: Category Examples Monetary Policy FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT Geopolitics War, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction Regulation & Policy Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust Technology AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors Commodities Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products Corporate & M&A Acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry restructuring Step 1.3: Reference Loading Based on the event type, load the relevant references: Reference contents: headline event patterns.md : Historical event patterns and market reactions sector sensitivity matrix.md : Event × sector impact magnitude matrix scenario playbooks.md : Scenario construction templates and best practices Phase 2: Agent Invocation Step 2.1: Invoke scenario analyst Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent. Expected output: List of related news articles Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear) Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd order) Stock recommendation list Step 2.2: Invoke strategy reviewer Using the scenario analyst's results, invoke the review agent. Expected output: Pointing out blind spots Opinion on the scenario probabilities Pointing out bias Proposal of alternative scenarios Final recommendations Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation Step 3.1: Integrate Results Integrate the output of both agents to produce the final investment judgment. Integration points: 1. Fill in the blind spots raised in the review 2. Adjust the probability allocation (if needed) 3. Make the final judgment accounting for bias 4. Formulate a concrete action plan Step 3.2: Generate Report Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file. Save location: reports/scenario analysis <topic YYYYMMDD.md Step 3.3: Save the Report 1. Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist 2. Save as scenario analysis <topic YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario analysis venezuela 20260104.md ) 3. Notify the user that the save completed 4. Do not save directly to the project root Output This skill generates the following file: File Format Description reports/scenario analysis <topic YYYYMMDD.md Markdown Comprehensive scenario analysis report Output contents: List of related news articles 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (with probability allocation) Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd order) Positive/negative stock recommendations Second opinion / review Final investment judgment & implications Resources References references/headline event patterns.md Event patterns and market reactions references/sector sensitivity matrix.md Sector sensitivity matrix references/scenario playbooks.md Scenario construction templates Agents scenario analyst Primary scenario analysis strategy reviewer Second opinion / review Important Notes Language All analysis and output are in English Stock tickers remain in their standard (English) symbols Target Market Stock selection is US listed equities only ADRs included Time Horizon Scenarios target 18 months Described in 3 phases: 0 6 months / 6 12 months / 12 18 months Probability Allocation Base + Bull + Bear = 100% Each scenario's probability is described with its rationale Second Opinion Mandatory (always invoke strategy reviewer) Review results are reflected in the final judgment Output Location (Important) Always save under the reports/ directory Path: reports/scenario analysis <topic YYYYMMDD.md Example: reports/scenario analysis fed rate hike 20260104.md Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist Must not save directly to the project root Quality Checklist Confirm the following before finalizing the report: [ ] Is the headline parsed correctly? [ ] Is the event type classification appropriate? [ ] Do the 3 scenario probabilities sum to 100%? [ ] Are the 1st/2nd/3rd order impacts logically connected? [ ] Is the stock selection backed by concrete rationale? [ ] Is the strategy reviewer review included? [ ] Is the final judgment reflecting the review documented? [ ] Is the report saved to the correct path?

scenario-analyzer