Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented

News Reaction Failure Analyzer Overview Implements step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process: once a market is flagged as crowded ( cot contrarian detector , step 1), check whether it FAILED to react to news that should have rewarded the crowd. A crowded long market that doesn't rally on genuinely bullish news, or a crowded short market that doesn't sell off on genuinely bearish news, is the core behavioral tell that the crowd has run out of buying/selling power — this is the confirmation step that turns "crowded" into a contrarian setup candidate (steps 3 5, still manual: price action confirmation, entry, exit). Why this isn't a naive failure ratio check: an earlier design flagged "news failure" whenever fewer than half the relevant events "responded" — but under pure noise, roughly 69% of individual events fail to respond by chance, so that rule would CONFIRM on random noise 48 83% of the time depending on sample size. This skill instead requires the market to have moved significantly against the crowd's favorable news (a drift significance test with a Monte Carlo verified null false positive bound), never merely "didn't respond enough." See references/news failure patterns.md for the full statistical rationale. When to Use This Skill English: "Did the market shrug off [event] even though [asset] is crowded long/short?" "Run a news failure check on [symbol]" "Is [symbol] confirmed for a Shapiro style contrarian setup?" After cot contrarian detector flags a market CROWDED LONG / CROWDED SHORT and the user wants to move to step 2 Japanese: 「この市場は好材料に反応しなかった？」「COTで偏っているこの銘柄のニュース失敗を確認して」 Do NOT use when: The market isn't crowded (NEUTRAL classification) — this skill refuses fail closed without an explicit direction override No curated events JSON exists yet — WebSearch must run first (Phase 2 below); never fabricate events or URLs to get a verdict Prerequisites FMP API Key: Required. Set FMP API KEY or pass api key . Used for price data only ( stable/historical price eod/light ) — coverage varies by symbol; see references/price source map.md . Python 3.9+ with requests installed. WebSearch access to curate the events JSON (Phase 2). Skill degrades gracefully without it (states the limitation; never fabricates events). Optional: a cot contrarian detector JSON report ( detector json ) to auto resolve symbol + direction, or supply direction explicitly. Workflow Phase 1: Obtain symbol + direction From a cot contrarian detector report ( detector json , symbol looked up in markets[] ) or directly from the user ( symbol + direction ). A NEUTRAL classification, a symbol missing from the report, or a report older than max detector age days (default 10) all refuse fail closed with a specific reason — only an explicit direction overrides. Phase 2: Curate the events JSON via WebSearch Search news in the evaluation window ( window days , default 10) using the 4 tier source hierarchy (issuer/primary → SEC/official stats → wire → portal — see references/news failure patterns.md ). Write findings into an events JSON from references/news failure patterns.md 's template — event , event time (ISO8601 with explicit UTC offset), source url , source tier , expected impact (BULLISH/BEARISH) per event. Never fabricate events or URLs. WebSearch unavailable → state it explicitly; proceed without an events JSON only if the user accepts an INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE result (reason no events provided ) — the CLI never raises an exception for a missing events file, it always exits 0 with a documented reason. Phase 3: Run the CLI The script fetches the price series (documented fallback chain — futures symbol first, ETF proxy if 402/restricted or rows == 0 ; see references/price source map.md ), computes effective dates / returns / z scores per event, clusters events whose 3 trading day windows overlap (independence guard), and synthesizes the verdict. Phase 4: Present verdict + handoff Present the verdict, aggregate stats ( drift stat , responded ratio ), and the evidence table (per event returns/z scores/reaction labels, with any dropped events reasons shown — never silently hidden). If a proxy ( run context.proxy used ) was used, note the tracking error caveat. Emit a handoff block for contrarian setup gate ( 241, not yet built): Output JSON: reports/nrf <symbol <as of date .json — schema version , symbol , direction , expected direction , actual reaction ( FAILED TO RALLY / FAILED TO SELL OFF / RALLIED / SOLD OFF / MIXED REACTION / NO DATA ), verdict , confidence , relevant events used , aggregate (mean z3/drift stat/responded ratio), evidence[] , dropped events[] , run context . Markdown: reports/nrf <symbol <as of date .md — human readable verdict, aggregate stats, evidence table, dropped events table, proxy caveat (if used), and methodology footnote. Guardrails CONFIRMED is not a trade signal. It confirms step 2 of 5 — price action confirmation (step 3), entry (step 4), and exit (step 5) are still manual and still required before any position. INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE never advances the pipeline. Fewer than min events (default 3) usable relevant event clusters , a missing detector report, or a detector vintage ( data date ) that's missing, unparsable, dated after as of , or older than max detector age days (stale), a NEUTRAL classification without an explicit override, or no working price source all produce this verdict — never a crash, never a forced call on inadequate data. COT publication lag. COT data is 3 9 days old by the time it's read (see cot contrarian detector ); news failure evidence should be read in that context, not as same day confirmation. Counter direction events are context only — shown in the evidence table but excluded from the verdict (only events whose expected impact matches the crowd's expected direction count). Proxy based prices are noted, not hidden. When an ETF proxy was used ( run context.proxy used ), the report says so — tracking error, expense drag, and roll timing differences make the reaction direction read approximate, not exact. Residual statistical risk under extreme correlation. The verdict's null false CONFIRMED rate is hard verified under i.i.d. noise (<8%) and under a realistic residual correlation stress (AR(1) ρ=0.1, <10%). Under an intentionally extreme correlation stress (lag 1 ρ=0.3 across non clustered event windows — roughly 10x liquid futures empirical autocorrelation), the measured null rate rises to ~11 13%. This is a documented v1 limitation, not a silent gap — see references/news failure patterns.md for the full numbers. Users who want the stricter <10% margin even under that stress can pass drift z 1.75 (at the cost of missing some genuine news failure signals, not just noise). Not investment advice. Research/educational purposes only. Resources references/news failure patterns.md Full methodology: what qualifies as a relevant event, the 4 tier source hierarchy, worked examples, the events JSON curation guide + template, and the verdict threshold rationale (why drift significance, not a naive ratio; the Monte Carlo verified null bounds). references/price source map.md Per market price source fallback chain, verified/402/0 rows status (live probed at implementation time), ETF proxy caveats, and markets with no viable source (documented no price source cases: VX, ZQ, HO, all agri on this key). When to Load References First use / explaining the methodology: Load references/news failure patterns.md Explaining why a market has no verdict (no price source): Load references/price source map.md Regular execution: References not needed for the CLI itself — needed for Phase 2 (events curation) and for explaining results to the user

news-reaction-failure-analyzer