This skill should be used when analyzing recent market-moving news events and their impact on equity markets and commodities. Use this skill when the user requests analysis of major financial news from the past 10 days, wants to understand market reactions to monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB, BO

Market News Analyst Overview This skill enables comprehensive analysis of market moving news events from the past 10 days, focusing on their impact on US equity markets and commodities. The skill automatically collects news from trusted sources using WebSearch and WebFetch tools, evaluates market impact magnitude, analyzes actual market reactions, and produces structured English reports ranked by market impact significance. Prerequisites Tools: WebSearch and WebFetch tools must be available for news collection API Keys: None required (uses built in web search capabilities) Knowledge: Familiarity with financial markets terminology is helpful but not required Output This skill produces conversational guidance during the analysis session. When the full workflow is executed, Claude generates a comprehensive Markdown report (see Step 6 for format) that can be saved to the reports/ directory upon user request. No files are generated automatically; output is presented in the conversation. When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: User requests analysis of recent major market news (past 10 days) User wants to understand market reactions to specific events (FOMC decisions, earnings, geopolitical) User needs comprehensive market news summary with impact assessment User asks about correlations between news events and commodity price movements User requests analysis of how central bank policy announcements affected markets Example user requests: "Analyze the major market news from the past 10 days" "How did the latest FOMC decision impact the market?" "What were the most important market moving events this week?" "Analyze recent geopolitical news and commodity price reactions" "Review mega cap tech earnings and their market impact" Analysis Workflow Follow this structured 6 step workflow when analyzing market news: Step 1: News Collection via WebSearch/WebFetch Objective: Gather comprehensive news from the past 10 days covering major market moving events. Search Strategy: Execute parallel WebSearch queries covering different news categories: Monetary Policy: Search: "FOMC meeting past 10 days", "Federal Reserve interest rate", "ECB policy decision", "Bank of Japan" Target: Central bank decisions, forward guidance changes, inflation commentary Inflation/Economic Data: Search: "CPI inflation report [current month]", "jobs report NFP", "GDP data", "PPI producer prices" Target: Major economic data releases and surprises Mega Cap Earnings: Search: "Apple earnings [current quarter]", "Microsoft earnings", "NVIDIA earnings", "Amazon earnings", "Tesla earnings", "Meta earnings", "Google earnings" Target: Results, guidance, market reactions for largest companies Geopolitical Events: Search: "Middle East conflict oil prices", "Ukraine war", "US China tensions", "trade war tariffs" Target: Conflicts, sanctions, trade disputes affecting markets Commodity Markets: Search: "oil prices news past week", "gold prices", "OPEC meeting", "natural gas prices", "copper prices" Target: Supply disruptions, demand shifts, price movements Corporate News: Search: "major M&A announcement", "bank earnings", "tech sector news", "bankruptcy", "credit rating downgrade" Target: Large corporate events beyond mega caps Recommended News Sources (Priority Order): 1. Official sources: FederalReserve.gov, SEC.gov (EDGAR), Treasury.gov, BLS.gov 2. Tier 1 financial news: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times 3. Specialized: CNBC (real time), MarketWatch (summaries), S&P Global Platts (commodities) Search Execution: Use WebSearch for broad topic searches Use WebFetch for specific URLs from official sources or major news outlets Collect publication dates to ensure news is within 10 day window Capture: Event date, source, headline, key details, market context (pre market, trading hours, after hours) Filtering Criteria: Focus on Tier 1 market moving events (see references/market event patterns.md) Prioritize news with clear market impact (price moves, volume spikes) Exclude: Stock specific small cap news, minor product updates, routine filings Think in English throughout collection process. Document each significant news item with: Date and time Event type (monetary policy, earnings, geopolitical, etc.) Source reliability tier Initial market reaction (if observable) Step 2: Load Knowledge Base References Objective: Access domain expertise to inform impact assessment. Load relevant reference files based on collected news types: Always Load: references/market event patterns.md Comprehensive patterns for all major event types references/trusted news sources.md Source credibility assessment Conditionally Load (Based on News Collected): If monetary policy news found: Focus on: market event patterns.md → Central Bank Monetary Policy Events section Key frameworks: Interest rate hike/cut reactions, QE/QT impacts, hawkish/dovish tone If geopolitical events found: Load: references/geopolitical commodity correlations.md Focus on: Energy Commodities, Precious Metals, regional frameworks matching event If mega cap earnings found: Load: references/corporate news impact.md Focus on: Specific company sections, sector contagion patterns If commodity news found: Load: references/geopolitical commodity correlations.md Focus on: Specific commodity sections (Oil, Gold, Copper, etc.) Knowledge Integration: Compare collected news against historical patterns to: Predict expected market reactions Identify anomalies (market reacted differently than historical pattern) Assess whether reaction was typical magnitude or outsized Determine if contagion occurred as expected Step 3: Impact Magnitude Assessment Objective: Rank each news event by market impact significance. Impact Assessment Framework: For each news item, evaluate across three dimensions: 1. Asset Price Impact (Primary Factor): Measure actual or estimated price movements: Equity Markets: Index level: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Severe: ±2%+ in day Major: ±1 2% Moderate: ±0.5 1% Minor: ±0.2 0.5% Negligible: <0.2% Sector level: Specific sector ETFs Severe: ±5%+ Major: ±3 5% Moderate: ±1 3% Minor: <1% Stock specific: Individual mega caps Severe: ±10%+ (and index weight causes index move) Major: ±5 10% Moderate: ±2 5% Commodity Markets: Oil (WTI/Brent): Severe: ±5%+ Major: ±3 5% Moderate: ±1 3% Gold: Severe: ±3%+ Major: ±1.5 3% Moderate: ±0.5 1.5% Base Metals (Copper, etc.): Severe: ±4%+ Major: ±2 4% Moderate: ±1 2% Bond Markets: 10 Year Treasury Yield: Severe: ±20bps+ in day Major: ±10 20bps Moderate: ±5 10bps Currency Markets: USD Index (DXY): Severe: ±1.5%+ Major: ±0.75 1.5% Moderate: ±0.3 0.75% 2. Breadth of Impact (Multiplier): Assess how many markets/sectors affected: Systemic (3x multiplier): Multiple asset classes, global markets Examples: FOMC surprise, banking crisis, major war outbreak Cross Asset (2x multiplier): Equities + commodities, or equities + bonds Examples: Inflation surprise, geopolitical supply shock Sector Wide (1.5x multiplier): Entire sector or related sectors Examples: Tech earnings cluster, energy policy announcement Stock Specific (1x multiplier): Single company (unless mega cap with index impact) Examples: Individual company earnings, M&A 3. Forward Looking Significance (Modifier): Consider future implications: Regime Change (+50%): Fundamental market structure shift Examples: Fed pivot from hiking to cutting, major geopolitical realignment Trend Confirmation (+25%): Reinforces existing trajectory Examples: Consecutive strong inflation prints, sustained earnings beats Isolated Event (0%): One off with limited forward signal Examples: Single data point within range, company specific issue Contrary Signal ( 25%): Contradicts prevailing narrative Examples: Good news ignored by market, bad news rallied Impact Score Calculation: Example Calculations: FOMC 75bps Rate Hike (hawkish tone): Price Impact: S&P 500 2.5% (Severe = 10 points) Breadth: Systemic (equities, bonds, USD, commodities all moved) = 3x Forward: Trend confirmation (ongoing tightening) = +25% Score: (10 × 3) × 1.25 = 37.5 NVIDIA Earnings Beat: Price Impact: NVDA +15%, Nasdaq +1.5% (Severe = 10 points) Breadth: Sector wide (semis, tech broadly) = 1.5x Forward: Trend confirmation (AI demand) = +25% Score: (10 × 1.5) × 1.25 = 18.75 Geopolitical Flare up (Middle East): Price Impact: Oil +8%, S&P 1.2% (Severe = 10 points) Breadth: Cross asset (oil, equities, gold) = 2x Forward: Isolated event (no escalation) = 0% Score: (10 × 2) × 1.0 = 20 Single Stock Earnings (Non Mega Cap): Price Impact: Stock +12%, no index impact (Major = 7 points) Breadth: Stock specific = 1x Forward: Isolated = 0% Score: (7 × 1) × 1.0 = 7 Ranking: After scoring all news items, rank from highest to lowest impact score. This determines report ordering. Step 4: Market Reaction Analysis Objective: Analyze how markets actually responded to each event. For each significant news item (Impact Score 5), conduct detailed reaction analysis: Immediate Reaction (Intraday): Direction: Positive, negative, mixed Magnitude: Align with price impact categories Timing: Pre market, during trading, after hours Volatility: VIX movement, bid ask spreads Multi Asset Response: Equities: Index performance (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000) Sector rotation (which sectors outperformed/underperformed) Individual stock moves (mega caps, relevant companies) Growth vs Value, Large vs Small Cap divergences Fixed Income: Treasury yields (2Y, 10Y, 30Y) Yield curve shape (steepening, flattening, inversion) Credit spreads (IG, HY) TIPS breakevens (inflation expectations) Commodities: Energy: Oil (WTI, Brent), Natural Gas Precious Metals: Gold, Silver Base Metals: Copper, Aluminum (if relevant) Agricultural: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (if relevant) Currencies: USD Index (DXY) EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Emerging market currencies Safe havens (JPY, CHF) Derivatives: VIX (volatility index) Options activity (put/call ratio, unusual volume) Futures positioning Pattern Comparison: Compare observed reaction against expected pattern from knowledge base: Consistent: Reaction matched historical pattern Example: Fed hike → Tech stocks down, USD up (as expected) Amplified: Reaction exceeded typical pattern Example: Inflation print +0.3% above consensus → Selloff 2x typical Investigate: Positioning, sentiment, cumulative factors Dampened: Reaction less than historical pattern Example: Geopolitical event → Oil barely moved Investigate: Already priced in, other offsetting factors Inverse: Reaction opposite of historical pattern Example: Good news ignored, bad news rallied Investigate: "Good news is bad news" dynamics, Fed pivot hopes Anomaly Identification: Flag reactions that deviate significantly from patterns: Market shrugged off typically market moving news Overreaction to typically minor news Contagion failed to spread as expected Safe havens didn't work (correlations broke) Sentiment Indicators: Risk On vs Risk Off: Which regime dominated Positioning: Evidence of crowded trades unwinding Momentum: Follow through in subsequent sessions or reversal Step 5: Correlation and Causation Assessment Objective: Distinguish direct impacts from coincidental timing. Multi Event Analysis: When multiple significant events occurred in the 10 day period, assess interactions: Reinforcing Events: Same directional impact

market-news-analyst