Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for QQQ/SPY (close down at least 0.2% on higher volume), track 25-session expiration and 5% invalidation, count d5/d15/d25 clusters, classify market risk (NORMAL/CAUTION/HIGH/SEVERE), and emit TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendations. Use after market close, before TQQQ e

IBD Distribution Day Monitor Purpose Detect IBD style Distribution Days for major market ETFs (QQQ as Nasdaq proxy, SPY as S&P 500 proxy) and produce a daily market deterioration signal plus a TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendation. Designed for post market review. When to Use Invoke this skill: Daily after the US market close. Before increasing TQQQ exposure or rebalancing leveraged positions. When evaluating whether an uptrend is becoming vulnerable to a correction. As an upstream input to FTD (Follow Through Day) detection or other market state frameworks. Do NOT use this skill to: Execute trades or modify orders. Generate discretionary market predictions outside of the IBD ruleset. Inputs Symbols (default: QQQ, SPY) and lookback (default 80 trading sessions). Optional as of YYYY MM DD for backtesting against a historical session. Strategy context: instrument (TQQQ or QQQ), current exposure %, base trailing stop %. FMP API key via api key , config.data.api key , or FMP API KEY env var (in that priority order). Core Rules A Distribution Day is detected when: 1. Today's close is at least 0.2% below yesterday's close. 2. Today's volume is greater than yesterday's volume. A Distribution Day is removed from the active count when either: More than 25 trading sessions have elapsed since the DD. The index has gained 5% from the DD close (using post DD high by default; configurable to close source). Today's DD is never invalidated immediately because there are no post DD sessions to evaluate the 5% gain against. Counting Conventions d5 count / d15 count / d25 count count active records with age sessions <= N . This means N+1 sessions are inspected (age 0..N inclusive). Reports therefore say "within N elapsed sessions" rather than "直近 N 取引日" to avoid ambiguity. Risk Classification Risk Trigger NORMAL d25 <= 2 CAUTION d25 = 3 HIGH d25 = 5 OR d15 = 3 OR d5 = 2 SEVERE d25 = 6 OR d15 = 4 OR ( market below 21ema or 50ma AND d25 = 5 ) When both QQQ and SPY are loaded, QQQ weighted overall logic applies (TQQQ aware): a single SEVERE escalates to SEVERE; QQQ HIGH escalates to overall HIGH; QQQ NORMAL + SPY HIGH still escalates to HIGH (broad market spillover). TQQQ Exposure Policy Risk Action Target Exposure Trailing Stop NORMAL HOLD OR FOLLOW BASE STRATEGY 100% base CAUTION AVOID NEW ADDS 75% min(base, 7%) HIGH REDUCE EXPOSURE 50% min(base, 5%) SEVERE CLOSE TQQQ OR HEDGE 25% min(base, 3%) QQQ uses a less aggressive policy (HIGH=75%, SEVERE=50%) since it lacks 3x leverage. Workflow 1. Load OHLCV for the configured symbols via FMP ( get historical prices ). 2. Validate data quality; record skipped sessions in audit. 3. Rebase via prepare effective history so effective history[0] is the evaluation session. 4. Detect raw Distribution Days; enrich with high since , invalidation event, and status. 5. Count d5 / d15 / d25 active records. 6. Compute 21EMA and 50SMA filters; flag market below 21ema or 50ma (None if data insufficient). 7. Classify each index, then combine using QQQ weighted policy. 8. Generate portfolio action for the configured instrument. 9. Write JSON + Markdown reports to output dir with API keys redacted. Outputs Saved to reports/ (or output dir ): ibd distribution day monitor YYYY MM DD HHMMSS.json ibd distribution day monitor YYYY MM DD HHMMSS.md JSON is UTF 8 with ensure ascii=False (Japanese explanations preserved). Sensitive keys ( api key , fmp api key , token , etc.) are redacted automatically. Operating Principles Do not override the IBD rule definitions unless config/default.yaml is changed deliberately. Always explain which dates contributed to the active count. Treat missing or unreliable volume data as a warning (audit flag), not as a Distribution Day. Do not place trades. The portfolio action is a risk management suggestion, not an execution instruction. CLI API Requirements FMP API key required. Free tier (250 calls/day) is sufficient for daily QQQ + SPY runs. Related Skills ftd detector : Bottom confirmation via Follow Through Days (counterpart of this top side signal). market top detector : Composite 0 100 top probability score using O'Neil distribution + other components. position sizer : Convert risk management recommendations into share counts.

ibd-distribution-day-monitor