Evaluate account-level drawdown circuit breaker rules from trader-memory-core state and decide whether new trade risk is allowed today. Uses realized P&L, losing-streak cooldowns, and weekly/monthly drawdown limits without any external API.

Drawdown Circuit Breaker Overview Evaluate whether the trader should take new trade risk today based on account level realized P&L and recent terminal trade outcomes. This skill reads trader memory core thesis YAML files only. It produces a circuit breaker decision artifact that complements the market side exposure decision from exposure coach. The circuit breaker is a recommendation and recordkeeping tool. It does not replace human judgment, and it does not enforce broker side blocks or automated order rejection. When to Use Before screening or sizing any new swing trade candidate After a losing trade or partial trim to check whether a cooldown is active During daily planning when trader memory core contains recent closed or partially closed positions As a workflow gate before swing opportunity daily proceeds to candidate generation When reviewing whether daily, weekly, or monthly loss limits have been breached Prerequisites Python 3.9+ Local trader memory core thesis YAML files, usually under state/theses/ Account size in dollars No API keys or network access required Workflow Step 1: Read Trader Memory State Point the script at the thesis state directory: The script scans every th .yaml file and reads realized P&L from each thesis status history[] ledger entry. It does not use index.json for P&L, because the index is a lightweight lookup file and does not contain the required realized P&L ledger. After validating each file, the script groups valid theses by the case sensitive, whitespace trimmed thesis id . If two or more valid files share an ID, it excludes the entire duplicate group from P&L and losing streak calculations, reports every actual source path, and returns PARTIAL + HALTED until the duplicate state is repaired and the decision is rerun. metrics.theses scanned counts only accepted theses with unique IDs. If the state directory is missing or is an empty directory, the skill returns TRADING ALLOWED with data quality: EMPTY STATE so a new user is not blocked by the absence of history. If the configured state path exists but is not a directory, the skill fails closed as incomplete state data. If state exists but a thesis, ledger event, or terminal result must be skipped or conflicts with another recorded value, the skill fails closed with data quality: PARTIAL , recommendation: HALTED , and an incomplete state data rule. Repair the warnings and rerun before taking new risk. The one recoverable exception is a finite terminal outcome.pnl dollars fallback for a legacy thesis with no realized P&L ledger entry; it remains visible as PARTIAL but does not by itself override the calculated recommendation. For ACTIVE , PARTIALLY CLOSED , CLOSED , and INVALIDATED theses, each history event must be an object with a recognized status and parseable at , and the last history status must match the thesis status. ACTIVE and PARTIALLY CLOSED theses must also carry entry actuals; PARTIALLY CLOSED must carry a position. Malformed, stale, or skeletal lifecycle history disqualifies terminal fallback and halts. Ledger shaped events whose realized pnl is missing, untyped, or non finite also halt instead of being coerced. Step 2: Evaluate Circuit Breaker Rules The default rules are: Rule Default Triggered State Release Max daily loss 2.0% of account HALTED Next ET weekday Losing streak cooldown 2 terminal losing theses COOLDOWN 24 hours after latest loss exit Weekly drawdown halt 5.0% of account HALTED Next Monday ET Monthly drawdown halt 8.0% of account HALTED First day of next month ET Day, week, and month boundaries use America/New York . Date only producer timestamps from trader memory core are counted on the named ET date. Set as of for deterministic evaluation; date only as of values cover the full ET day, while timestamp values exclude future events after that time: Step 3: Override Thresholds When Needed Override individual thresholds on the CLI: Or provide a JSON config file: CLI arguments override config file values. Step 4: Interpret the Decision Use the generated decision as a gate for new trade risk: Recommendation Meaning TRADING ALLOWED No circuit breaker rule is active; new trade risk may proceed through the rest of the workflow COOLDOWN Do not open new positions; continue managing existing positions and review the recent losses HALTED Stop new entries because a drawdown limit is active or account state data is incomplete; repair/rerun any data warnings before proceeding Existing position management remains a human decision. The circuit breaker is designed to prevent new risk escalation after realized damage, not to force liquidation. Time based rules carry an ISO 8601 active until . The non time based incomplete state data rule uses active until: null ; its Markdown report says the halt lasts until the state is repaired and the decision is rerun. Output Format The script writes circuit breaker decision YYYY MM DD HHMMSS.json and, unless json only is set, a matching markdown report. Exchange Calendar Contract Install requirements.txt before running the checker. Daily, weekly, and monthly halt dates use actual XNYS sessions. active until remains compatible: the halt ends at 00:00 America/New York on the next eligible session date, not at that session's opening bell. Use as of for deterministic evaluation. Resources scripts/check circuit breaker.py Main CLI and rule engine references/circuit breaker framework.md Rule definitions, defaults, and data source notes skills/trader memory core/schemas/thesis.schema.json Source schema for thesis state Key Principles 1. Realized damage only Use recorded realized P&L, not unrealized P&L or thesis level cumulative fields for daily calculations. 2. Survival first A circuit breaker exists to prevent escalation after losses. 3. Advisory, not automatic execution The output informs the workflow gate; it does not place, cancel, or block broker orders. 4. Fail closed on incomplete state Empty state allows a new user to begin, but malformed, discarded, conflicting, or non finite risk data returns PARTIAL + HALTED without crashing. A finite legacy outcome fallback is reported as recoverable PARTIAL and remains non blocking.

drawdown-circuit-breaker