Synthesize the three Jason Shapiro contrarian-pipeline verdicts (COT crowding, news-reaction failure, weekly price-action confirmation) into one actionable setup_status via a fail-closed precedence state machine. Pure, offline synthesis -- no network, no API keys, no computation beyond validation an

Contrarian Setup Gate Overview Synthesize the outputs of Jason Shapiro's 3 step contrarian process into one actionable state. cot contrarian detector (step 1) flags crowded positioning, news reaction failure analyzer (step 2) tests whether the market failed to react to news favorable to the crowd, and technical analyst's contrarian confirmation mode (step 3) confirms weekly price action evidence of a reversal. This gate reads those three report JSONs and applies an explicit, exhaustively tested precedence rule set to produce one setup status , with a fail closed reason attached to every input that could not be confirmed. The gate does no fetching, no API calls, and no computation beyond validating and combining the three inputs it is given. It is the pipeline's synthesis center, not a data source. When to Use After running cot contrarian detector (always required this is the pipeline's entry point) Mid pipeline, with only the detector report, to see the CROWDED state and what steps remain After running news reaction failure analyzer, to see whether the setup advances to WATCHING PRICE or is REJECTED After running technical analyst's contrarian confirmation mode, to see whether the setup reaches READY FOR PLAN Before handing a symbol's direction and stop level to a position sizing skill Prerequisites Python 3.9+ No API keys this skill is fully offline A cot contrarian detector JSON report for the symbol under evaluation (required) Optionally, a news reaction failure analyzer JSON report for the same symbol (step 2) Optionally, a technical analyst contrarian confirmation JSON report for the same symbol (step 3) Workflow Step 1: Run the Gate symbol and detector json are required; news json and price action json are optional omit either to see the state at that pipeline stage. as of is required (no implicit "today"): staleness is always evaluated against an explicit reference date so reruns are deterministic. Exit behavior is intentionally asymmetric: a missing or malformed as of (or any other CLI usage error) is an operator config mistake, so the CLI exits 2 with usage text and writes no report. A problem with one of the three untrusted report files unreadable, malformed, stale, inconsistent is always handled fail closed instead: the CLI exits 0 and writes a report naming the reason, exactly like every other skill in this pipeline. Step 2: Read the Setup Status Status Meaning Next Step READY FOR PLAN All three steps confirmed; direction, entry trigger, and invalidation level are populated Hand direction and invalidation level to a position sizing skill WATCHING PRICE Crowding + news confirmed; price action still pending Run technical analyst's contrarian confirmation mode CROWDED Crowding confirmed; news and/or price still pending Run news reaction failure analyzer REJECTED Crowding is NOT CONFIRMED (classification NEUTRAL), or news/price came back NOT CONFIRMED Stop do not run further steps for this symbol/direction INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE A required input is missing, unreadable, stale, inconsistent, or could not itself reach a verdict Stop fix or regenerate the named input before rerunning missing confirmations lists every step still blocking, with its state and reason . warnings never change the status they flag audit worthy conditions such as a MEDIUM confidence confirming signal or a near stale input. Step 3: Act on READY FOR PLAN Only At READY FOR PLAN , direction (SHORT/LONG, the fade side of the crowd), entry trigger (a factual echo of the confirming weekly signal), and invalidation level (the stop reference from the price action report) are populated. gate confidence is the weaker of the news and price action confidences (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW LOW is a token both upstream skills document as reserved but never actually emit; the gate accepts it and ranks it weakest rather than rejecting it as unknown). Position sizing is the next pipeline stage (not yet built as of this skill's release see the roadmap in the repository's workflow docs); this gate never places or recommends an order. Precedence (Summary) Each step is evaluated in strict pipeline order crowding, then news, then price action and each step fully settles before the next step's file is even consulted. An earlier step's definitive verdict is never softened by a later step's problem. 1. Crowding is evaluated first and exclusively: INVALID/INSUFFICIENT crowding is always INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE ; a NOT CONFIRMED (NEUTRAL) classification is always REJECTED , regardless of any downstream file's state or corruption. 2. With crowding CONFIRMED, news is evaluated next, on its own: INVALID (unreadable, malformed, stale, symbol mismatch, direction mismatch, unsupported schema) forces INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE ; NOT CONFIRMED forces REJECTED ; INSUFFICIENT forces INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE in every one of these cases, price action is never even inspected for the decision. 3. Once news is CONFIRMED (or PENDING, for out of order use), price action is evaluated last, with the same four way settlement. Running price action before news (out of order pipeline use) caps the status at CROWDED with a warning a NOT CONFIRMED price action verdict still REJECTs even out of order, since price action is still fully evaluated in that branch. 4. Crowding confirmed, both downstream steps pending CROWDED . 5. Crowding + news confirmed, price action pending WATCHING PRICE . 6. All three confirmed READY FOR PLAN . See references/gate decision table.md for the full decision table (every reachable {crowding} x {news} x {price action} state combination), the reason token glossary, and worked examples. Output Contract The script writes contrarian setup gate <SYMBOL <as of .json and .md to output dir : Every input's state is one of CONFIRMED , NOT CONFIRMED , INSUFFICIENT , PENDING (report not provided), or INVALID (a report was provided but is unusable unreadable, malformed, stale, or inconsistent with the other inputs; always carries a named reason). Guardrails 1. Never places or recommends orders. READY FOR PLAN is the furthest state this skill reaches. Order entry and position sizing are separate, downstream decisions. 2. INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE and REJECTED never advance. No warning, confidence, or partial input ever pushes the status past what the precedence rules allow. 3. Fail closed on every input, always. An unreadable, malformed, stale, symbol mismatched, or unknown enum report is never treated as a pass it is named and blocks or downgrades the status. This includes the price action report's verdict reason (allowlisted against technical analyst's actual confirming signal vocabulary, not merely type checked) and its stop reference (must be a finite, positive number never non finite, zero, negative, or a boolean). Before any of the three report files reaches this validation, the CLI also rejects a file outright (reason <input non finite ) if it contains a non finite number ( Infinity / Infinity / NaN , including an ordinary looking number like 1e309 that overflows on parse) ANYWHERE in it, not just in a field the gate reads this is what keeps every report a valid, complete JSON file even under adversarial input. 4. READY FOR PLAN always carries a usable plan. entry trigger is guaranteed non empty and invalidation level is guaranteed a finite positive number whenever the status is READY FOR PLAN enforced both by input validation and by a defensive invariant check. 5. Not investment advice. entry trigger and invalidation level are factual echoes of the upstream price action report, not recommendations. Resources scripts/run contrarian setup gate.py CLI: hardened JSON loading (unreadable / parse error incl. RecursionError / non finite via an iterative whole file scan), report generation scripts/gate logic.py Pure synthesis core: normalization (incl. malformed shape detection), consistency checks, the precedence state machine references/gate decision table.md Full decision table, reason token glossary, worked examples (including the real B6 REJECTED case)

contrarian-setup-gate