thinking-systems

When behavior is emergent across components—fixes elsewhere break, loops/delays dominate—map boundary, stocks/flows, feedback, archetypes, then rank leverage.

By tjboudreaux · 416 installs

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Systems Mapping and Leverage Treat the problem as structure and interaction, not isolated parts. Map boundary, stocks/flows, loops/delays, and recurring patterns; intervene at the highest feasible leverage after a side effect check. When to Use Symptom spans services/components; single stack fixes fail or bounce. A change in one place breaks another; behavior is emergent. Problem recurs despite local fixes (structure, not only symptom). Need to rank interventions when parameter/buffer tweaks do not stick. When NOT to Use Single component linear bug with clear stack/diff—trace and fix. Throughput limited by one obvious stage—use theory of constraints. Decision is a consequence chain of one proposed action—use second order. Approach selection (plan vs probe vs stabilize)—use cynefin first. Procedure 1. Bound the system. Name purpose, actors, boundary, and in/out flows. Exclude noise outside the decision horizon; include any path that can feed the symptom. 2. Map stocks and flows. List accumulating stocks (queue depth, debt, cache size, WIP) and the rates that fill/drain them. Note what changes slowly even when flows jump. 3. Find feedback and delays. For each candidate loop: classify reinforcing (amplifies) vs balancing (resists); mark same direction (+) vs opposite ( ) links; name delays (TTL, deploy lag, metric lag, ramp up). Even count of opposite links → reinforcing; odd → balancing. Long delay + strong correction → overshoot risk. 4. Match recurring structure when problems return. Check only if recurrence or policy resistance is present; do not force a pattern: Fixes That Fail — quick fix, delayed worse side effect Shifting the Burden — workaround starves fundamental fix Limits to Growth — growth hits a balancing constraint Tragedy of the Commons — local optima deplete a shared stock Escalation — mutual reaction spiral Success to the Successful — advantage compounds via allocation Growth and Underinvestment — capacity lags demand until crisis If none fits after a genuine pass, keep the from scratch map. 5. Trace symptom to structure. Walk upstream along flows and loops; separate proximate symptom from structural driver (interaction, delay, wrong goal, missing info). 6. Rank interventions by leverage, then side effects. Prefer higher feasible class: goals/paradigm → rules/information → loop structure (gain, balancing add, delay shorten) → stock/flow topology → buffers/parameters. For each candidate: feasibility, blast radius, delayed reversal risk. Prefer moves that cut harmful reinforcing gain or strengthen needed balancing loops without creating a new commons/escalation. 7. Stop. Commit highest feasible intervention plus watch signals for loop/delay response. Re map only if the structure changes or the intervention fails its watch. Stop when boundary, key stocks/flows, dominant loop(s)+delay(s), optional archetype, and a ranked intervention with side effect check are stated—or when the problem collapses to a single linear cause. Output Verification Falsify: If removing one component fully explains and fixes the issue with no cross effects, systems mapping is wrong—drop to local debug. If utilization shows one fixed stage as the sole cap, switch to theory of constraints. Stop: Do not keep adding loops after the chosen intervention and watch are set. Over application guard: No archetype without recurrence evidence. No low leverage param tweak listed as primary when a feasible higher class exists. Do not recreate standalone archetype/feedback/leverage procedures—those checks live only inside this map.