Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.

Prioritize Assumptions Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments. Context You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS . If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first. Domain Context ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization frameworks skill for full formulas and templates. Instructions The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework: 1. For each assumption , evaluate two dimensions: Impact : The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × Customers) Risk : Defined as (1 Confidence) × Effort 2. Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix: Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher priority assumptions are addressed High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward) Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment) High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it 3. For each assumption requiring testing , suggest an experiment that: Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort Measures actual behavior, not opinions Has a clear success metric and threshold 4. Present results as a prioritized matrix or table. Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial. Further Reading [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption prioritization canvas) [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)

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