Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice. Use when evaluating prediction markets a

Prediction Market Oracle Research Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle like signal, or decision intelligence layer. Guardrails Do not treat market prices as objective truth. Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations. Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal. Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes. For on chain or execution linked systems, run llm trading agent security before granting any write authority. Research Workflow 1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform. 2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues. 3. Record market implied probabilities with timestamps and source links. 4. Evaluate signal quality: liquidity spread market age trader/incentive concentration if known resolution authority geography or account restrictions 5. Compare against non market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs. 6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision. Integration Patterns Research assistant: source grounded context for a human analyst. Dashboard signal: market implied probability alongside internal metrics. Agent memory input: a time stamped signal that can be retrieved later. Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold. Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades. Output Contract Use: 1. decision context 2. market sources 3. signal quality 4. comparison sources 5. integration recommendation 6. caveats End with:

prediction-market-oracle-research